http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3473113

4 year deal, not a big surprise really.  Hopefully this will put an end to our delusions that he is going to become a Blazer.  Let the LBJ dreams begin!  Luckily for us, I think Mr. Bayless will do just fine as our team's future point. 

My prediction: Bayless starts out on the bench until he serves Blake so hard in practice that it ends his career, ala South Park.

SERVED! SERVED!

With our unfortunate loss to Sacramento, the Blazers are two games ahead of Sacramento for the 10th spot in the west, and two games behind for the 12th spot in the lottery.  If the Kings win out and we lose out, we get the 12th spot in the lottery.  If we end up with the same record as the Kings, we would split the lottery spot with them, essentially getting the 12.5 spot.  If we stay ahead of them, we get the 13th spot.

Moving up to the 12th spot means we would have a .1% better chance at the first pick, a .1% better chance at the second pick, and a .1% better chance at the third pick.  If we don't strike gold for two years in a row, we would get the 12th pick, one higher (duh) than the 13th.

Conclusion: start tanking!  (kidding)

I thought this might be useful for anyone looking ahead and wondering what # pick we might get in the lottery.  

Barring an epic collapse or unbelievable run, we should have the 13th draft spot.  This assumes that we will end the season with a better record than any non-playoff team in the east (we're 8 games ahead of the 9th place east team right now).  That means there will be 7 east teams with a better draft position than us.

This also assumes we end up with a better record than SAC, LAC, MEM, MIN and SEA/OKC.  Sacramento is the best of that bunch, and is five games behind us right now.  We're four games behind Golden State for the 9th spot, and it doesn't look likely that we will catch them.  I would say there's a 90% chance we end the year in this same spot.

Given a 13th draft position, the following are the odds for different picks in the draft:

1st pick: .6%
2nd pick: .7%
3rd pick: .9%
13th pick: 96%
14th pick: 1.8%

So, there it is, we're 96% likely to get the 13th pick, assuming we keep our current standings, which I think is a near certainty.

Takeaways:
Keep the 13th pick in mind when you're watching college games or wondering who might be available.

Hope that GS or whoever has the 14th pick doesn't somehow get in the top three (this would drop us to the 14th spot).

Hope that lightning strikes twice, and we turn our 2.2% chance into a top three pick.

more info on the lottery:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

Don't know if anyone's interested, but because two of our guys are going I thought yall might want to post your in game opinions.  Enjoy.  30000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
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A few basic stats for your enjoyment:

Team Pts. Margin SOS  Home/Away

POR    +1.78    .511   20/17
UTA    +4.82    .527   19/20
HOU    +2.08    .531   16/22
GS     +1.39    .518   18/20

All stats from ESPN.  If you're looking for an explanation for why people still don't believe in the Blazers, these numbers are a good place to start.  Based on Pythagorean expectations (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation)
the team should have about 21 wins right now instead of 23.  We also have the lowest strength of schedule, and the most favorable home away split.

This essentially confirms what we already knew.  We're outperforming expectations, and taking advantage of home games and a soft spot in our schedule.

These numbers should be more balanced by the time the road trip is over, so we'll have a better idea of where we stand by then.

Note: for an explanation of the Tweener league see: http://www.blazersedge.com/story/2008/1/15/02047/4220

When considering the Blazers Playoff chances, it helps me to divide up the teams in our conference into different categories.  I consider six teams (Dallas, SA, New Orleans, Phoenix, the L***s, and Denver) to be locks for the playoffs.  Five teams (Seattle, Minny, Sacramento, the Clippers, and Memphis) appear to have no chance at this point.  That leaves us, Utah, Golden State, and Houston as the inaugural members of what I'm dubbing the Tweener League.

The Tweener League is a collection of teams in the west competing for the available playoff spots, in this case four teams, two spots.  The current standings of the Tweener League:

Portland  23-14-.622- 0 GB (Hollinger Odds: 62.8%)
GS        22-16-.579- 1.5 GB (53.7%)
Utah      22-17-.564- 2.0 GB (80.8%)
Houston   20-18-.526- 3.5 GB (72%)

I find this breakdown useful for comparing our progress and standing vs. our real peers.  Put simply, we beat two of these teams, we advance to the playoffs.  Houston looks like the most likely to drop out of the race, with repeat injuries to their two stars and general underachieving looking likely to torpedo their season.  

I'm going to try to follow these four teams for the remainder of the season, and will try to post a semi-regular update on this "unofficial league."  Think of it as a corollary to Hollinger's playoff odds on ESPN, which I will also post for the teams involved (and feel free to treat it with the same amount of seriousness:) ).

Note: Some of you may object to me not including LA, Denver, or any number of the lesser teams.  I disagree.  Let me start with Denver.  No team with Melo and AI can fail to make the playoffs.  Their ceiling is inherently limited due to their two man focus, and any of the four teams in the Tweener League could easily surpass them, but their basement is likewise limited to being an eighth seed.  They may not be great, but they will make the playoffs.  I would argue that the Lakers are a sure thing, although it remains to be seen how they respond to the loss of Bynum.  In fact, injuries are the main contingency that could move teams in and out of the "league."  I will relegate and promote teams if there are fundamental shifts in the playoff picture.

Simple question: who do you think will be our long term PG?  Note that the question is 'who will be,' not 'who do you want in a dream scenario.'  Is Blake enough?  Will Jack return to the starting lineup?  Is the answer in the draft?  Will one of our Euro's step in?  Will we pick someone up in '09?  Can Roy shift over?

A lot of questions, and not a lot of easy answers.  I think that PG does appear to be our most glaring weakness going forward.  

Personally, I'm not absolutely sure.  I don't think Blake is quite frankly talented enough in the long term, although I really like the idea of him as a backup PG.  Jack has nicely eased into his role as second unit scorer, and I think this is probably his future role.  Moving Roy over doesn't make much sense to me; I'm not sure if he can break the press or defend quicker guards.  

As I see it, we draft a PG in this draft, most likely Rose or Collison depending on our draft spot, and then see if he, Sergio, and the Playboy can stick.  If we don't see much out of them, we make a play at someone in two years.

The more I think about trading for Marbury, the more the transaction seems like a no brainer.  Consider the following points:

Marbury would be bought out, and would never play a game in a Blazer uniform.  It might seem painful to pay a guy $20 million to not play, but that's exactly what we're doing with Lafrentz and Miles anyways.

We would save $8.7 million overall.

We free up all of our cap room at the same time, which makes the whole "sign a big free agent in 09" plan a lot more feasible.

We get rid of the last of the "jail blazers"

We open up roster spots, possibly to bring over Freeland or Fernandez over early (I may be wrong on this point, not sure what kind of buyouts/contracts this would take.  Can anyone elaborate on this?)

Isaiah Thomas might be stupid enough to throw in a worthwhile addition like Robinson, Balkman, or a draft pick.

What it comes down to is one choice:  Would you sign Lafrentz and Miles right now for two and three years respectively for $8.7 million payable in 2010?  I wouldn't.  If the Knicks would do the deal, it's an easy call.