snipet from...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=TradeTalk-081015

The Portland Seven

The Blazers head into the next summer with the potential to have major cap space, with seven players hitting the free-agent market. But there's a catch.

First, Darius Miles, with Boston this preseason, could mess up Portland's plan. If he plays in 10 games this season, his $9 million salary goes right back on the Blazers' books.

Second, they are going to have to make some difficult choices about a number of their young players. Martell Webster, Channing Frye, Ike Diogu, Sergio Rodriguez and Travis Outlaw can all become free agents, along with veterans Steve Blake and Raef LaFrentz.

Because of NBA collective bargaining rules, each player is assigned a "cap hold" that serves as a salary placeholder for the summer. Because Webster, Frye and Diogu were all drafted in the lottery, their cap holds are very high -- likely higher than their actual salaries will be in their new contracts. The only way for Portland to get rid of those cap hold numbers is to sign those players to contracts during the free agent period or to not make qualifying offers to them.

If Portland chooses to sign them, not only will those players eat into the cap space, but the team, while working out the new contracts, will lose precious time during the early days of July's free-agent frenzy. If the Blazers choose not to make qualifying offers, those players become unrestricted free agents.

So I expect GM Kevin Pritchard to be very proactive (as always) this winter and to move at least a couple of those young players.

Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.

Sounds like there will be something happening from the desk of Kevin Pritchard before too long into the season.  How much will injuries play a role in this?  Who is really expendable?  How important is keeping our depth to the long-term and short-term success?

We all know about the talent level of these kids we like to call the Blazers.  Seriously, has there EVER been a more loaded with talent team?  Ever?  No, doubt it will ever even come close.  I know that question has been posed before, about talent and upside and athleticism and natural gifts, but what about intangibles?

The Blazers have some guards that have very unique attributes that not only improve their own overall skill, but also increase the overall abilities of those players around them.

Leadership: I will start out with the most obvious.  Brandon Roy, the young Blazers fearless leader possesses leadership.  Leadership is his intangible that improves all the Blazers poise and attitude both on and off the court.  Roy has proven over the past two years to be an impeccible team spokesman, a clutch floor leader, and warrior who fights through injury and adversity with an unbelievable positive outlook and work ethic.  Roy's leadership ability more than makes up for Portland's lack of an all-star caliber veteran that many have petitioned the Blazers brass to bring in.

Competitiveness: Jarryd Bayless is only a 19 year old rookie, but he has a swagger that won't quit.  We've heard Channing say that Bayless is already THE best shooter on the team.  Bayless is saying that he is striving to make the next Olympic squad.  Bayless won MVP of summerleague because of his uber-competitiveness.  The sweet thing about this kids confidence is that confidence like his is contagious.  I think the other shooters on the team (mainly Martell Webster) will feed off this kids tireless competitiveness and confidence in his offensive skills.  If that is the case, this rookie's impact will be far greater than his ppg and assists per game.  Again, Elite Competitiveness is something that an all-star caliber vet could bring to the team and we may be getting that boost from a rookie.  If Martell, Travis, Luke Jackson, Channing, Steve and Roy all catch this kids confidence of shooting and BEATING the opponent, we will more than likely hit that 55 win mark this year.

Awareness: Rudy Fernandez is a pretty sizeable upgrade over Jarrett Jack on the second unit.  Especially after we saw what Rudy could do in the Olympic games.  It seemed Rudy was always around the ball, that the Spanish offense was always going through him and that he was finding the lanes and open spots on the floor.  Rudy's game Awareness is very advanced for a 23 year old.  Have you really thought about how much Rudy's Awareness and motor will add to the white unit this season?  Fernandez was able to more than hang with the All-NBA team USA, now he is going to enact that awareness against teams second units along side offensive studs like Travis Outlaw and Jarryd Bayless,  and defensive centerpiece Joel Pryzbilla. Rudy's awarness will give an extra boost to all of the players who are on the hardwood with him.

Leadership, Competitiveness and Awareness.  Boy do I like our guard rotation right now.  What do you think?

Gavin Dawson was on 95.5 today posing the question: Can Brandon Roy become an all-NBA Top-5 player, like Kobe, LeBron, Iverson, Nash, etc. have been over time?

Brandon Roy's history that pales in comparison to most NBA stars with respect to young stardom, hype, early and often success; which makes people question how much TALENT Brandon Roy has yet to be untapped?  He was in college all four years (an uncommon trait for the most elite talent in the NBA), didn't start as a junior in high school (wasn't a "Basketballs-Next-Greatest" as a youth like many NBA stars) and Roy came into the NBA with a pretty refined game for a rookie, a mature NBA body, and a great intangible of being a natural distributor-facilitator-playmaker.  Roy then became an All-Star in his sophomore year.  Everyone agrees that Brandon Roy is definitely a leader and highly capable NBA player, but can Roy be tough enough, healthy enough, effective enough to be considered an All-NBA Top 5 Player?

Personally, I think Yes.  Brandon Roy can be a NBA Top 5 player... I must compare his game to Paul Pierce.  Both are methodical 6'6" ball-handling inside-outside triple-threat player (shoot-pass-drive).  Just watching the finals this year I couldn't help but watch Paul Pierce's methodical approach to breaking down the LA defense.  No. 34 isn't particularly fast, but deceptively quick... like Roy.  Pierce is a killer shooter from 3pt, jump shots and finishing at the rim... which is the offensive reportoire that Roy, Coach Nate and KP are striving for from their star guard.  Pierce is gritty, clutch, versatile and tough, and he is a leader.  Now, you may or may not agree with me that Pierce is a Top-5 NBA player, but at least you can agree it is debate, especially after being the leading scorer, clutch play-maker and finals MVP for this past seasons best NBA team.  So in that regard, I think that Brandon Roy can and will have a similar season sometime in his career, maybe more than one, of the type of season that Pierce had in 2007-08 for the Boston Celtics.

What can get better, undoubtedly, by Brandon Roy is efficiency.  With a little more time in the NBA, Roys shooting percentages for FG's, 3-pointers, and free-throws will all creep up a little to help his stats remain the same  or go up with fewer or similar shot chances once this team is really going.  Plus, with Oden, Rudy, Bayless, Outlaw, Webster, Frye, and Aldridge getting better and impacting games, Roy's opportunities may come a little easier on the fearless leader.  Brandon Roy does have more ceiling, shooting efficiency can go up, passing skills, rebounding, defensive awareness, conditioning, hopefully a killer deep 3-ball. 

Brandon Roy is already pretty good, but I think he can be great.  

Do you remember our team from the early 90's?  Yeah, they made two NBA Finals appearances (vs. Pistons and Bulls) and were one of the most exciting and winning teams of their era, although they never hit the big mark which is winning a Championship.  You know, they had some pretty good players:  That team featured a great three guard rotation of Drexler, Porter and Ainge... whereas KP is building a team with a guard rotation that could look like Roy, Bayless, and Rudy.  Obviously the vintage 90's guys are more decorated and proved their worth... but what do you like and dislike about the comparison.

The vintage team had a three forward rotation too!  Jerome Kersey & Buck Williams started, with versatile Cliff Robinson coming off the bench.  What about our Aldridge, Webster, Outlaw rotation?

Oden vs. Duckworth?  Obviously the hype goes to Oden, but Duck was pretty solid back then.  Oden's rare talents really separate this young squad from the vintage one, but there are plenty of angles you can take with this post.  I have compiled information on the vintage 90's team and loosely put in their per game averages for that specific point in their careers (1989-1992) and short bios about their game and make-up as a player for that Blazers team.  How do they compare with the team that KP has assembled today?  Can this crop of Blazers at least mirror the success of that Blazers team, meaning, can we get this team into the finals multiple times?  Win?  As it is now, no more trades, just a few more seasons of seasoning? 

What advantages do our current team have over the vintage team?  What disadvantages does our current team have to the vintage team?

Check it out:

Clyde Drexler, 6’7” 220lbs, Shooting Guard:  22ppg, 6.5rpg, 6.1apg, 2stl, 48%FG. Clyde the Glide came to Portland in the 1983 draft and was picked 14th by Portland.  Drexler was famed for his speed and finesse on the court, and his easy-going and quiet demeanor off the court. Drexler became well-known for his exceptional abilities as a finisher, but generally was only considered a decent shooter. During his career Drexler developed a well-rounded game, even becoming an effective post player. His extraordinary leaping abilities allowed him to be an acrobatic dunker.  Drexler was regarded as a versatile player and he was consistently among the leaders at his position in points, rebounds, assists and steals.

Terry Porter, 6’3” 195lbs, Point Guard:  17ppg, 8apg, 3rpg, 46%FG, 40%3pt.  Porter teamed in the Blazer back court with Clyde Drexler as the playmaker and long-distance shooter on a Trail Blazers squad that twice made the NBA Finals. A fixture in Portland for a decade, Porter is all over the Blazers' career record book. He also played in two All-Star Games.  Porter took over the team's starting point guard position his sophomore season, a slot he would hold for the better part of eight seasons. In those eight years he scored in double figures in each season and became a feared three-point shooter, in his prime years he was shooting between 36% - 41% from long-range.  Terry was a 1st round pick #24 in the 1985 draft.

Jerome Kersey, 6’7” 215lbs, Small Forward:  14ppg, 7rpg, 46%FG.  As a player, Kersey was the consummate over-achiever. His work ethic was exemplary and his competitive nature was a driving force that kept him in the league for 17 years. Jerome was described as a hard-nosed forward who never backed down from a physical challenge. Unlike today's NBA players, you would never see Kersey hugging an opponent as teams assemble for the center jump.  Kersey had very memorable hops, but Kersey claims he wasn’t a “natural athlete” but a hard worker who developed good vertical leap and quickness.

Buck Williams, 6’8” 215lbs, Power Forward:  10ppg, 9rpg, 52%FG.  Williams was brought to Portland in a trade that sent Sam Bowie and Pick #12 (Mookie Blaylock) to the Nets.  Buck was already established as a premier power forward and elite rebounder.  Gritty workman in the paint was known for his double doubles and high field goal percentages.  Although in his earlier years Buck could post 18ppg and 11 rpg, during the years as a Blazer, Buck was more in the stat column of 10ppg and 9rpg with 50-55% FG’s.

Kevin Duckworth, 7’0” 300lbs, Center:  16ppg, 6rpg, 46%FG.  Duckworth's seven-year career with the Blazers was full of ups and downs, most of them caused by Kevin's own sensitivity to criticism and the fluctuations in his own body weight.  Offensively, the Blazers worked to get Duckworth involved as he was an under rated skilled big-man and key to their game plan.  Despite his massive size, Kevin was well coordinated, which when teamed with his size he became a deceptive weapon.   He's big and looked slow at first glance, but he had really quick feet for a man his size and great soft hands. And he can shoot the ball from outside, as well as body up his 300 pounds in the paint.  Duckworth came to Portland in his rookie season in a trade after he was drafted #33 in the 2nd round by the Spurs.

Cliff Robinson, 6’10” 225lbs, Forward- Reserve:   16ppg, 6rpg, 46%FG.  Following game 4 of the 1992 Western Conference Finals against the Jazz, Robinson performed a victory dance that he later told press was named the "Uncle Cliffy."   Thus the great nickname.  That year, Cliffy won the NBA Sixth Man of the Year with a record 90.8% of the vote after he averaged 19.1 points, 6.6 rebounds and career-best 1.99 blocks.  That was his forth year in the league, and ended up being a legendary iron-man NBA player with 18+ seasons.  At 6'10", he is the tallest player to make more than 1,000 three-pointerhe has made 1,228 threes as of the conclusion of the 2005-2006 Season.  With that size and range, obviously Robinson was a very versatile forward who could stretch the floor like today’s spread-4’s and back up both Buck and Kersey from their starting roles.

Danny Ainge, 6’5” 200lbs, Guard-Reserve:  10ppg, 3apg, 2rpg, 44%FG, 40%3pt.  Talented in multiple sports as a kid growing up in Oregon and college at BYU, Ainge was a very versatile and skilled guard known as a hard-nosed player, who usually infuriated opponents with his combative style and brash personality… and deep, clutch three-point daggers!  Ainge was only a Blazer for two seasons 1991 and 1992, but fit the role of being in a 3-guard rotation with Drexler and Porter perfectly.

Mark Bryant, 6’9” 245lbs, Reserve-Forward

Robert Pack, 6’2” 180lbs, Reserve-Guard

Alaa Abdelnaby, 6’10” 245lbs, Reserve- Forward/Center

I just read it again today:  Michael Beasley, 6'10".... Bogus.  How badly does the sports media want to enhance certain players measurements?  Obviously bad enough, because he is listed nearly 2" taller than his actual in shoes measurements. 

Let's be fair, rounding up is going to happen.  Any of these players can be round up ONE FULL INCH over thier "In-Shoes" Height, but anything more than that is Bogus Hype.  It is interesting to see how many players are not rounded up, as opposed to the players are given the benefit-of-the-doubt everytime.  What about our Blazers?  Well, they all measure out very favorably compared to other top players at thier positions.... with out any bogus rounding.

What strikes you as interesting about these measurements?

Here is a compiled list of 70 current NBA players with their pre-draft measurements from www.draftexpress.com:

For every post that brings up a trade proposal on our beloved Blazersedge.com website, there are plenty of posts about how home team-fans over-rate the players they have.  These comments are obviously coming from players who under-rate the players they have, instead favoring greener pastures in the form of players on other teams.  What a conundrum...

IMO, "homerism" calls are totally missing the point.  It is about chemistry, timing, salary cap, both short term & long term successes, risk vs. reward and popularity.

Ask yourself these questions:

How much more success(wins) could this team have in the short term if this move were to take place? If it were not to take place?

How much more success(wins) could this team have in the long term in this move were to take place? If it were not to take place?

How much of a strain would this move put on our salary cap situation and retention of necessary pieces in the short term?  In the long term?

How would this move affect team chemistry, co-hesiveness?  Would the teammates, coaches and fans give more popularity to the incoming or outgoing players?

What is the teams pain-threshold for this risk vs. reward?  Does this risk vs. reward fit in the timing of needing a final piece now, or is a more appealing final piece going to be available in a year, or two? 

Many may call it homerism, but for myself, when I answer those questions I am very proud and satisfied that we have been able to keep Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw,  and Channing Frye as part of our core going into the 2008-2009 season.  Looking back at what was accomplished in the draft (keeping RLEC leverage, landing the sought-after rookie PG Jarryd Bayless the KP & Bedgers were giddy for, adding Batum as a SF option down the road and adding more leverage to next years draft with picks), I could not be more pleased with the Portland Trail Blazers roster.

It is not out of blind homerism, it is simply that we know GM Kevin Pritchard did the right move after right move and improved upon a team that .500 in the tough Western Conference.  You may feel that Bedgers over-rate Martell & Travis & Channing, or you may feel that these guys are all awesome and part of the long-term Championship window here in Portland.

I never supported the "Trader Bob" era where the Blazers cut-bait early on many players while acquiring players "too-late" in their careers and acquiring players who had talent but no heart, smarts or care of the community.  Right now, guys who try hard and have proven to continue to develop and work at it like Webster, Outlaw and Frye create a very high-threshold of pain in order to move that high quality of person and talent.

Why does the grass always seem brighter to some, yet definitely not to all?

Remember the minutes crunch issue?

Remember the blogs about not wanting to break up our young core?

Remember the posts about wanting to more solidify our PG and SF positions?

Well, I think the Portland Trail Blazer organization really nailed this draft.  I have no regrets of trading a guy like Darrell Arthur, or moving a player like Jarrett Jack, you do what you have to do.  I read post of people complaining about moving Arthur... where would that cat fit into our plans?

LMA > Outlaw > Frye > Diogu >Darrell Arthur = no minutes for Arthur

After the dust settles, here is our team this year:

PG: Jarryd Bayless (rookie talent, great size), Steve Blake (vet, midlevel), Sergio Rodriguez (prospect, talent), Petteri Koponen (rookie prospect)

SG:  Brandon Roy (all-star), Rudy Fernandez (rookie shooter)

SF:  Martell Webster (21 yearsold), Travis Outlaw (23 yearsold), Nicolas Batum (french swingman prospect, was considered top 15 talent in draft)

PF:  LaMarcus Aldridge (star), Channing Frye (spread-four), Ike Diogu (muscle)

C: Greg Oden (star to be), Joel Pryzbilla (best backup C in NBA), RLEC (kept the leverage baby!)

We traded Omer Asik to Chicago for futures, we traded Mike Taylor to LAClippers for futures, and we got the SF prospect that KP was targeting.  Why question KP on the Arthur deal when he hasn't steared us wrong.  Plus, how many teams passed on Darrell Arthur?  It is not like he was in the plans, except for the fact we wanted Best Player Available with that pick so we could get maximum leverage, and for that, Thank you Mr. Arthur.  Nicolas Batum is a better fit on this team, he is an athletic shooter who is young and could stay overseas for a year or come and develop behind the two guys we all wanted to keep Webster and Outlaw. 

You gotta admit, this small forward crew looks good.  So does our chances at PG.  Portland still has some time before we really really compete, but I think only one year before it is time for this squad to dominate.

Our Frontcourt is very solid.  Adding Ike Diogu was GREAT.  He is a tough paint player 6'8"250lbs, former #8 pick from Arizona State.  His minutes will be low, but he isn't expecting more, he isn't a rookie and he gives us a bruiser down low if we need it.  Now we have Pryzbilla and Diogu to do the dirty work.  Oden is pretty beefy too.  LMA is a prototype NBA power forward and Channing Frye is a talent that we are lucky to still have.  This frontcourt is set.

Great job KP & Crew.  Thanks for making it a fun and productive day for Blazer fans.

This is the hard question for me, if we really have to throw in a chip to get a player like Devin Harris (and I am not talking about trading either Outlaw or Webster to get a draft pick, but a player like Harris or Heinrich), which budding forward would you personally rather see stay with the Blazers for the long run?

Personally, I'd like to see us walk out of this draft with both Martell and Webster locked in as Blazers key cogs for the future.  BUT, these are obviously KP's best chips to play.  So if he needs them, he might use them.  And I hope Portland doesn't loose both on draft day as that would be a huge blow to the PDX fanbase, I think. 

If we trade one, I am certain that James Jones33 would want to remain in the Red & Black, but if we keep both I can see JJ33 wanting out.  Which would be fine.

Any Small Forwards that you would like to replace either Outlaw or Webster if they are moved?  Any other PTB small forward thoughts?  PG has been the biggest topic, but it is gameday so lets talk SF too.

I know, it is all up in the air, but I have Portland shooting for Los Angeles Clippers Pick #7 so KP can trade up to get targeted point guard DJ Augustin.  In order to do this, he also has to trade into the first round with San Antonio, then package that pick (#26) with our pick #7 and Jarrett Jack... but we have to take back Brevin Knight, uugh.  See trades 5 amd 6 below for details.  This is the move that I think Portland is going to make, and it makes sense for all involved.

I have been doing a monthly Mock Draft and below my latest go at it.  Since we are so close to the actual draft and with all the rumors floating around, I sifted through the rumors and pieced together moves that are realistic, work with the CBA and fit team needs for the off-season.  IMO, this Mock Draft passes the "What would work and why would teams do this?" test with flying colors.  I have listed the 9 trades I fantasy brokered to get through the draft.

Trade 1:  Miami trades Pick #2 (forward Michael Beasley) and center Mark Blount to Seattle for #4 pick (guard OJ Mayo)) and forward Chris Wilcox.

Trade 2:  Golden State trades Pick #14 (center DeAndre Jordan) and Brandon Wright to Milwaukie for Pick #37 (center Nikola Pekovic) and forward Yi Jianlian.

Trade 3:  Milwaukie trades Pick #8 (guard Eric Gordon) and Pick #14 (center DeAndre Jordan from GS) to Memphis for Pick #5 (guard Jarryd Baylessa) and Pick #28 (DeVon Hardin).

Trade 4:  Houston trades Pick #25 (forward Nicolas Batum) to Minnesota for Pick #31 (forward DJ White) and Pick #34 (guard Gary Forbes)

Trade 5:  San Antonio trades Pick #26 (forward JJ Hickson) to Portland for Pick #33 (center Ante Tomic), Pick #36 (forward Ryan Anderson), and Pick #55 (guard George Hill).

Trade 6:  Portland trades Pick #13 (guard Brandon Rush), Pick #26 (forward JJ Hickson) and guard Jarrett Jack to the Los Angeles Clippers for Pick #7 (guard DJ Augustin) and guard Brevin Knight.

Trade 7: Toronto trades Pick #17 (forward Donte Green) and guard TJ Ford to Phoenix for forward Boris Diaw.

Trade 8: Seattle trades Pick #24 (guard Courtney Lee) and Pick #46 (guard Malik Hairston) to Orlando for Pick #22 (center Alexis Ajinca).

Trade 9: Boston trades Pick #30 (forward Serge Ibaka) to Seattle for Pick #32 (center Nathan Jawai) and Pick #50 (guard Bryce Taylor).

Okay, there is plenty of talk about the draft that is basically only a week away.  Through the BlazersEdge mock draft and following draft posts and mock drafts around the web, I see the Blazers best move this offseason is to leverage our picks as best as possible, keep our players as best as possible and really only add one body through the draft.  A GUARD.  So how do we add a guard when seemingly our #13 is too far down to draft one of these studly guards who are filling out half of the top 12 spots?  Move UP.

Here are the teams drafting ahead of us:

#7 LA Clippers

#8 Milwakie Bucks

#9 Charlotte Bobcats

#10 NJ Nets

#11 Indiana Pacers

#12 Sacramento Kings

Can you come up with trade and rationalization as to getting Portland to move up into striking distance of guards like Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, or DJ Augustin?  IMO, Ideally we will be keeping everyone on the roster except for Von Wafer and maybe we can add Sergio Rodriguez into the trade.  Can KP get it done to move up 2 slots or 6 slots just with our #13, #33, #36, #55 and maybe a future? 

Which of the teams drafting 7-12 seemingly could trade down and yet STILL DRAFT at #13 the player they were targeting with their lower pick?