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The Boy

Apr 10, 2008 Nov 18, 2008 781 2324

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Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

Mizzou (52)


Iowa St. (20)

% Close = 35.5%
46.6% Field Position %
53.4%
76.6% Leverage %
67.5%
TOTAL
64 Plays 77
37.04 EqPts 25.81
62.5% Success Rate 45.5%
0.58 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.34
1.204 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.790
CLOSE GAME ONLY
36 Plays 14
16.52 EqPts 2.94
52.8% Success Rate 35.7%
0.46 PPP 0.21
0.987 S&P 0.567
RUSHING
15.57 EqPts 4.46
65.2% Success Rate 39.1%
0.68 PPP 0.19
1.329 S&P 0.585
2.90 Line Yards/carry
3.06
PASSING
21.47 EqPts 21.34
61.0% Success Rate 48.2%
0.52 PPP 0.40
1.133 S&P 0.877
NON-PASSING DOWNS
63.3% Success Rate 46.2%
0.63 PPP 0.24
1.264 S&P 0.706
PASSING DOWNS
60.0% Success Rate 44.0%
0.41 PPP 0.52
1.008 S&P 0.963
TURNOVERS
2 Number 2
6.39 Points Lost 6.06
1.82 Points Given 8.31
8.21 Total T/O Pts 14.37
+6.16 Turnover Pts Margin -6.16
0.915 Q1 S&P 0.839
1.245 Q2 S&P 0.704
1.251 Q3 S&P 0.766
1.645 Q4 S&P 0.896
0.787 1st Down S&P 0.649
1.281 2nd Down S&P 1.024
2.265 3rd Down S&P 0.840
  • The yardage ended up being pretty close between the two teams (Mizzou 479, Iowa State 444), but all that truly matters is close-game stats, and Mizzou dominated here.
  • After last year's performance, I was wary of the day Alexander Robinson might have against Mizzou, but the Mizzou front seven was up for the challenge.  Aside from one nice run by Robinson that got them out of the shadow of their goalline (okay, there were no shadows...it was at night) and a couple shifty runs by Austen Arnaud, there was nothing here for the Cyclones.  Mizzou's rushing PPP was almost four times higher than ISU's.
  • For the first time in a while, Mizzou's S&P on Passing Downs crept back over the 1.000 mark.  Good to see.  We'll need all the Passing Downs success we can find in our two trips to Arrowhead.
  • ISU's success on third downs and Passing Downs was unacceptably high, but...I feel comfortable in saying that anytime Mizzou manages a 2.265 S&P on third downs (remember: anything over about 0.900 or 0.950 is a good S&P), they're going to win no matter what their defense does.
  • It was also nice to see Mizzou's offense continue to get into more and more of a rhythm with each passing quarter--their S&P improved each 15 minutes.

 

Poll
Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP against Iowa State?

  28 votes | Results

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Mizzou Links, 11-18-08

Seriously, somebody give Hannah Storm a sandwich...

Mizzou 103, Chattanooga 75.  A near-flawless second half led Mizzou to an easy win.  You can see what Mike Anderson's system looks like in this game--the other team knows what we're going to do and does everything it can to stop it.  And then about 16 minutes into the game, they get mentally exhausted and the game comes crumbling down.  Box Score!  Thoughts...

  • This is going to be a free-shooting, streaky team, but...31 3's is probably too many when only one person is actually making them.  Matt Lawrence went 4-for-8 from long-range (which was great to see), and the rest of the team went a tidy 6-for-23.
  • Kim English went only 3-for-8 from the field and 2-for-5 from 3-point range, but his energy late in the first half bought Mizzou some distance before halftime.  And then the starters stomped on the throat to start the second half.
  • Marcus Denmon's shot failed him last night (0-for-5 from 3-point range, 2-for-8 overall), but he still contributed 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 rebounds and only 1 turnover.  That's good to see.
  • Good Leo: 25 points on 12 shots, 5 offensive rebounds, 4 assists.  That's Fantastic Leo right there.
  • 21-for-36 from the FT line is poor, but here's why I'm okay with it: Leo and Demarre Carroll went 14-for-18.  They're going to take a majority of our FTs this year, and over time the guards will shoot just fine there (you have to figure the G's will be in the 70% range).  If Leo and Demarre shoot 78% for the year like they did last night, we'll be in good shape.
  • I liked Justin Safford's line--5 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block and 1 assist in 13 minutes.  That's the perfect contribution from him.

All in all, just a nice effort against a team that was making some lucky 3's and staying in the game for a while.

Chattanooga wrap-up links!

It took a while to get the paperwork in, but Mike Anderson has officially locked down Signee #2 of his 2009 recruiting class.  6'10 F/C Keith DeWitt has become the third Anderson signee (after Zaire Taylor and Justin Safford) from Charis Prep School in Goldsboro, NC.  DeWitt's name emerged late in the recruiting process, but he seemed to end up drawing quite a bit of interest, with offers from OU, OSU, West Virginia, N.C. State, Florida State, Marquette, and others.

Hate Week(s) Day #2!  Get this: The Missourian reports that the Kansas game is still important to the Tigers.  Who knew?  Oh yeah, and...GAG ME!

Finally, need more of a football fix?  It's Dave Matter's Big 12 Football Notes!  Plus, Vahe Gregorian looks at how Texas Tech-Oklahoma impacts Mizzou.

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Basketball Live Thread: Chattanooga at Ol' Mizzou

Who: Missouri Tigers vs. Chattanooga Mocs
Where: Mizzou Arena (Capacity 15,061)
When: 7:00 p.m. CST
TV: Mizzou Sports Network (Dan McLaughlin play-by-play; Jon Sundvold analyst)


Next Game

Chattanooga Mocs
@ Missouri Tigers

Monday, Nov 17, 2008, 7:00 PM CST
O`Reilly Auto Parts Puerto Rico Tip-Off, Mizzou Arena

Monday Musings - The Big XII North Champion Edition

Complete Coverage >



Team Leaders

Stat Player AVG
Scoring Leo Lyons 21.0
Rebounds DeMarre Carroll 9.0
Assists J.T. Tiller 5.0
FG% Justin Safford 100.0
FT% Marcus Denmon 100.0
3PT% Justin Safford 100.0
Blocks Zaire Taylor 1.0
Steals J.T. Tiller 4.0


Team Leaders

Stat Player AVG
Scoring Stephen McDowell 20.0
Rebounds Nicchaeus Doaks 9.0
Assists Keyron Sheard 6.0
FG% Jasper Williams 60.0
FT% Stephen McDowell 100.0
3PT% Stephen McDowell 70.0
Blocks Jasper Williams 0.0
Steals Jasper Williams 2.0

As always, make Rock M Nation your base of operations tonight with comments, observations, complaints, raves, etc.  Don't have an account? Sign up for one already!

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Mizzou Volleyball signs three

Paola Ampudia: '07 JUCO Player of the Year
Kate Harris: potential next setter
Lindsey Petrick: big middle blocker

The defense should be strong next year, but Mizzou needs all the offensive help it can get. Hopefully Ampudia can contribute immediately.

comment about 22 hours ago Rockmnation_tiny The Boy comment 5 comments 0 recs

Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings and Projections (after 7 weeks)

No big marquee game this week, but one thing's for certain regarding the BTBS numbers: if only one game is played, everybody's numbers change.  So let's see what happened with everybody winning easily and Texas Tech and Oklahoma watching on TV.

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Texas 242.0
1 239.4 +2.4
2 Texas Tech 233.1
3 230.4 +2.7
3 Oklahoma 228.8
2 230.9 -2.1
4 Oklahoma State 219.0
5 213.7 +5.3
5 Missouri 217.0
4 214.7 +2.3
6 Nebraska 210.1
7 202.9 +7.2
7 Kansas 203.7
6 205.2 -1.5
8 Baylor 187.8
9 182.1 +5.7
9 Kansas State 178.3
8 187.4 -9.1
10 Colorado 170.1
10 175.8 -5.7
11 Texas A&M 169.9
11 173.5 -3.6
12 Iowa State 164.4
12 161.8 +2.6

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

I should note that I've all but decided to change the "Close Game" parameters.  Currently, they are straight forward--if the scoring margin is within less than 17 points, it's a "close game".  If not, it's not.  I'm thinking about changing that to "within less than 21 or 24" for the first half, then maintaining "within less than 17" for the second half.

I guess Texas Tech's former opponents did better than Oklahoma's, as Tech managed to go up 2.7 points on bye while Oklahoma fell 2.1.  I can't say I understand how that happened--OU's only two opponents who haven't played Tech are Nebraska and Baylor, who both played well last week--but it did, and I'm going to live with it.  Needless to say, they're close enough that the winner of Saturday night's game in Norman will indeed be at least #2 next Monday...maybe #1.

Category rankings and projections after the jump.

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Mizzou Links, 11-17-08

Ross mentioned it yesterday, but we start today's Links with some Mizzou soccer links...they lost a heartbreaker in PKs to Illinois yesterday.

  • Mutigers.com: Soccer ends season in Penalty Kick Shootout
  • The Missourian: Tigers eliminated in NCAA Tournament
  • Post-Dispatch: Missouri loses NCAA women's soccer playoff to Illinois
  • FightingIllini.com: Illinois Cages Tigers in PKs, Advances to NCAA Round of 16
  • NCAAsports.com: Tourney Bracket--Illinois will now play North Carolina, who outscored their weekend opponents, 9-0

On to happier news...we've got your Big 12 Championship ticket info right here!!!

Iowa State wrap-up links!

The P-D's Vahe Gregorian talks about how Missouri is now the team to beat in the North.

The win was MU's 10th in a row against a North opponent, going back to their last game here in 2006. Moreover, only twice in that span have North teams come closer than 14 points away from Mizzou.

But that's just the exclamation point on a trend that began six years ago. Since then, MU leads all Big 12 North teams in conference victories with 27. Nebraska is second with 24, Kansas third with 21.

Of course, being labeled the best of the North is a dubious achievement in contrast with the Big 12 South, which currently has four top 10 teams. MU will have much to prove when it meets either Texas Tech, Oklahoma or Texas in the Big 12 title game on Dec. 6.

Finally, since we're all about the bullet points today, here are some basketball links!

  • KC Star: MU's Denmon shows poise early
  • The Trib: Dynamic debut ("On a day when senior forwards Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll combined to score 40 points and pull down 17 rebounds and Marcus Denmon dumped in 15 more off the bench, [Miguel] Paul’s contributions might have been as important as any for Missouri, which won for the 35th time in its last 36 home openers.")
  • The Missourian: MU guard shares some things with all-star cousin (Did you know Miguel Paul's cousin is Chris Paul???  I had no idea!)
  • Steve Walentik: Postgame thoughts
  • KC Star: Missouri's newcomers shine in romp over Prairie View A&M

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The turning point

Yesterday I watched South Carolina get completely smoked by Florida. A couple hours later, I watched Mizzou coast to its second straight bid in the Big 12 Championship game.  It got me thinking about a relatively nothing game that happened almost three years ago.  This program has had many "turning points" in the Pinkel era: signing Brad Smith, beating NU in '03, signing Chase Daniel, coming back against ISU in '05, et cetera.  But one "turning point" stands out above all others at the moment, due to the fact that it was a bit of a turning point for two different programs.  It is, of course, the 2005 Independence Bowl.

In the middle of the afternoon of Friday, December 30, 2005, Mizzou was getting its ass kicked in Shreveport, plain and simple.  They were losing 21-0 to South Carolina, and the Gamecocks were driving, ball at the Mizzou 16.  Mizzou had 63 yards of offense.  A friend of mine texted me that they were chanting "Fire Pinkel" and "Gary Barnett" in the bar in which he was watching the game.  I was the most steadfast Pinkel supporter I knew of, but even I found myself saying "I'm not saying they should fire Pinkel, but if they do I guess I can't complain much."

After the debacle of the 2004 season, in which a Mizzou team picked by some to win the North division for the first time had blown a series of leads and failed to make a bowl game, Gary Pinkel had needed a homerun in '05, and that was before Aaron O'Neal's death and the iffy press coverage that followed.  Brad Smith's senior season produced a few good memories--whipping Nebraska, making a dramatic comeback against ISU, putting up ridiculous yards against teams like Arkansas State and Troy. 

But more teams were able to employ the "Stopping Brad Smith" blueprint perfected by Kansas, and MU followed up a discouraging non-conference loss to New Mexico and a whoopin' by a wonderful Texas team with annoying trip-ups to KU (13-3) and Colorado (41-12).  And though they had clinched a bowl at 6-4, they blew a lead and lost to K-State in the season finale (36-28).  Everything that had haunted Mizzou in 2004--blown leads, offensive progress randomly screeching to a halt, defensive breakdowns, iffy play-calling--was still managing to trip Mizzou up, and with Brad Smith leaving, the future was in doubt. 

And Mizzou was heading back to Shreveport, with little to no fan interest.

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Mizzou Basketball Preview 08-09: Part Two

Today, we look at the guys in Missouri uniforms.

Leo Lyons


Senior

6'9, 245

2005-06: 9.5 MPG, 2.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 45% FG
2006-07: 17.9 MPG, 7.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 55% FG
2007-08: 22.1 MPG, 13.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 58% FG

rptgwb: Good Leo or Bad Leo? We've seen both in the exhibition season. Yes, he's got the silky smooth mid-range jumper, but right now, Leo simply can't stay out of foul trouble. He managed four fouls in 13 minutes in the Black and Gold game, and picked up his fourth against Missouri Southern less than a minute into the second half. WIth so much unproven depth on the bench at forward, Leo has to find a way to curtail the fouls. Like DeMarre, Mizzou can't afford to have him off the floor long, especially because he's Missouri's best hope in the half-court offense.

The Boy: We've read about Mike Anderson's efforts to make Leo a leader.  If it takes, and he's actually a positive presence in the locker room and on the court, this team's ceiling is much higher.  Of the individual skills this team possesses, "Leo Lyons' gorgeous jumper" is #1...or at worst #2 behind "Demarre Carroll's hair."

The Beef: Anytime he is ready to show up every game, I will care about him. Until then, I just am not impressed because I know what he CAN do

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Mizzou Basketball Preview 08-09: Part One

Over the next three days, we'll take a look at the upcoming Mizzou Basketball season here at RMN.  For Part One, we've called on Mizzou Basketball historian (and raconteur) Michael Atchison, author of True Sons, and easily the smartest participant in RMN's weekly Rock M Roundtable (yes, that's like saying he's the thinnest kid at fat camp...or the best football team in the Big East...regardless...).  Here's his treatise for 2008-09.

--

Welcome to Bizarro Mizzou.  When I was in school (an era we old-timers like to call “the day”), football was something to be suffered through, a seasonal gauntlet ranging from sunburn to frostbite, in hopes that November would bring a sucktacular Kansas or Kansas State team to town, and with it, a chance to tear down some goalposts.  Autumn’s end, though, brought promise of a warm gym on a cold winter’s night, where Norm Stewart’s squad would serially dismantle opponents en route to a Big Eight title.

How things have changed.  After two straight championship-caliber seasons and three straight sellouts, Gary Pinkel’s football Tigers are the undisputed campus kings, and the basketball team, mired in a half-generation of unfulfilled promise, scandal, and occasional ineptitude, has slid the slippery slope from love to hate to indifference, prompting many to wonder, should I even care?

The answer:  Yes.  You.  Should.

Let’s go back, way back, to those looking-glass days of March 2006, when the University of Missouri managed to botch the firing of a coach who, by acclimation, desperately needed firing, and later announced a press conference, prompting genuine speculation over whether the school would be terminating an athletics director or hiring a basketball coach.  It was unprecedented, yet unsurprising for a uniquely cursed program.  From Paige Sports Arena to NCAA probation to the Norm Stewart Court fiasco to the reign of terror surrounding He Who Shall Not Be Named (let’s call him Ickyray Emonsclay), Mizzou basketball gave birth to Snyder’s Law, a particularly virulent strain of the one named for Murphy:  Everything Will Go Wrong.

Then came Mike Anderson’s hiring, and the great exhale.  A championship pedigree.  A history of success as a head coach.  A skeleton-free closet.  Finally, the Quin Snyder era was over.

Or was it?

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Front Page Friday

You know the drill.  You write it, we promote it.

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